Tariffs. Now, what for Tradeshows?
The United States' implementation of new trade tariffs on “Liberation Day” on April 2, 2025, has ignited widespread debate over its impact on international trade and the global tradeshow industry.
Trade tariffs are taxes placed on imported goods, driving their prices up and thus making them less competitive in domestic markets. As a result, nearly all international businesses exporting to the US are facing an instant decline in their local market competitiveness to varying degrees.
It must be noted that, contrary to the central ethos of trade tariffs, these tariffs are not imposed to support domestic producers or to replace international products. Instead, they are used as (hopefully temporary) bargaining chips in a strategy to enable U.S. exporters to overcome other barriers they might be facing around the world.
Immediate impact on US shows
This will likely significantly affect international tradeshows in the US (those with more than 10% international exhibitors as per the UFI guidelines). Participating in these events as an international exhibitor is a crucial Go-To-Market strategy for many businesses. However, when the market is no longer viable, the (exhibition) investment will move elsewhere with more favourable trading relationships. The rest of the world remains wide open (for now).
In this scenario, for a US exhibition organiser, whilst local shows might go unscathed, shows with a significant international presence might get hurt. Imagine losing around 10% of your exhibitors in a world where baseline organic growth was expected to be around mid-single digits to start with. This effect can be even more significant for global shows with significant country-specific exhibitors and pavilions. Here’s a pre-liberation day Skift article about Chinese exhibitors at CES. And another one from BizBash.
That said, local producers will certainly mitigate the impact of international suppliers stepping back. However, it’s essential to recognise that this transition will require time as local producers adapt to meet the increased demand and enhance their capabilities, leading to an unavoidable delay before the full effects are realised.
But let’s remember, this is not the intended outcome of “liberation day. "
Secondary impact on the Rest Of the World
“Every action has an equal and opposite reaction - Isaac Newton”
We know the EU is gearing up for full-on retaliatory tariffs, the UK will likely take a more nuanced approach, and the rest of the world will be somewhere in between. This will have three likely results:
Global trade uncertainty and dampened overall growth
Global (additional) Tariffs on US goods, and downward pressure on US exhibitors
A smaller number of American buyers at global tradeshows
On the first issue: The UFI Global Exhibition Barometer, released in February 2025, ranked Geopolitical Challenges and global economic developments as the number two and three priority business issues in the short term, respectively. Global economic developments were also cited as the number one issue for the medium term. Good foresight!
Combine this with the consensus business-as-usual growth expectations for our industry, which are Global GDP + a few percentage points, and you’ll quickly realise what this might mean for the term ahead.
On the second: The to-be-announced tit-for-tat tariffs will have the same effect, this time on US exporters globally. Shows worldwide might see international exhibitors from the USA being priced out of their markets and potentially choosing not to exhibit. This is hard to quantify and might be less of a global issue globally as it concerns only American exporters, as opposed to all internationals for US-based shows.
Third, similar to the effect on US-based shows, with global products becoming uncompetitive in the US market, American buyers might show less interest in sourcing them globally. This could mean fewer American buyers travelling to trade shows to source global products. Some industries will be more at risk than others (electronics)
A Silver Lining? (for non-US shows only)
In 2014, I was the Global Digital Director for ITE (Hyve) when the EU and other countries first imposed economic sanctions on Russia. This was merely months before our flagship food show, WorldFood Moscow, which had more than 50% international exhibitors, mostly from the EU.
The outlook was bleak. We thought the big pavilions would be cancelled and had no immediate mitigation plans in place.
But markets correct themselves (and like to do so face-to-face)
We quickly witnessed a race to mitigate European produce. Producers from all over the world flocked to the show, trying to get a slice of the market re-distribution. Countries that usually didn’t challenge their European counterparts in the Russian market suddenly saw the opportunity. There was an influx of new exhibitors, and some sanction busting too: Who knew Belarus had so many high-quality wine and cheese producers?
In the end, the show was a great success, and the picture of the opening day, with several ambassadors scrambling to cut the ribbon, became famous.
Long story short
If this new situation escalates further, the international tradeshow industry will face significant repercussions. Rising costs for international exhibitors due to tariffs on goods and logistics, along with potential decreases in international attendee numbers from higher prices and worries about the trade environment, could diminish the vibrancy and global relevance of US-based international tradeshows.
But the market will inevitably self-adjust in response to these tariffs. Businesses will re-evaluate their international value chains, exploring shifts in sourcing strategies, the potential for domestic replacement of imported goods, and the feasibility of relocating manufacturing operations. New buyers and sellers, both domestic and from countries with favourable tariff treatment, may emerge, while buyer behaviour will likely shift towards safer options. Producers will rebuild their supply chains for resilience.
One thing is certain:
The best way to negotiate this period of change will be face-to-face
Let me know what you think here.
