How to navigate the tariff uncertainty for trade show organisers
Vinnie Polito, Tugce Cumalioglu, Geoff Dickinson, Garcia Newell, Christine von Breitenbuch and me on stage in Thessaloniki.
Last week, I had the privilege of moderating a panel at the UFI European Conference in Thessaloniki, bringing together some of the most insightful voices in our industry to explore one of the most pressing questions we face today:
“How do we navigate all the tariff uncertainty and potential trade wars?”
As I alluded to in my earlier blog post, “Tariffs – Now What for Tradeshows?”, uncertainty (unfortunately) has become the defining mood music of international trade and, thus, our industry as a whole. What we discussed on stage only underscored that reality and, more importantly, how we must respond to it.
Uncertainty is the Only Certainty
Our discussion opened with a look at how quickly and unpredictably tariffs have been shifting. One week, they’re announced and doubled. The next, they’re paused and halved. Then outlawed and suddenly back on again within the same week. The only liberation delivered by “Liberation Day” was from our strategy decks, straight to the bin.
In my opening remarks, I said, “The only constant is change”, and according to my fellow panellists, that’s precisely what’s unnerving global exhibitors and organisers. From a logistics point of view, Garcia shared that freight volumes from China to the U.S. have plummeted, while volumes from other parts of Southeast Asia are starting to tick upward. A regional rebalancing is underway, but it’s not immediate, and it’s not predictable. (more here) All that being said, European trade remains unaffected for now. All eyes are on the upcoming July 9th deadline, when new tariffs could take effect, contributing to the current climate of uncertainty in the logistics sector.
Europe’s Role as the Bridge, Not the Bystander
Christine from Messe München emphasised that European exhibitions are becoming more than product showcases amidst these geopolitical changes. They’re turning into strategic arenas where industry leaders meet policymakers, forge partnerships, and rethink their supply chains. Their large OEMs and tech firms aren’t scaling back, but they’re definitely shifting focus: resilience, not just revenue. For now, participation from Chinese and U.S. stakeholders remains steady, reinforcing Europe’s role as a neutral connector in global trade.
Tuğçe from IZFAŞ in Turkey echoed this, describing how Chinese exhibitors are no longer coming to Türkiye to sell; they’re coming to stay and forge partnerships. This signifies a shift in mindset among other international exhibitors. With its EU customs union membership and strategic location, Türkiye may be one of the winners of this reset. Her team is actively building long-term matchmaking programs and expanding outreach into Central Asia and Eastern Europe.
Middle East Rising: The Strategic Backup Plan
In the face of all this uncertainty, Geoff painted a strikingly optimistic (and contrasting) picture of the Middle East’s exhibition boom. While the rest of the world waffles in indecision, Gulf economies are doubling down on investment, new venues, and major shows. One of his comments stuck with me:
“Even if a bad thing happens, but it’s certain, you can react to it. The problem right now is we don’t know which way to turn.”
And that really is the core issue. It’s not the tariffs themselves—it’s the not knowing. Uncertainty kills action. And action is the oxygen of events.
What’s Happening Stateside?
Vinnie gave us the American view from the ground, and it wasn’t exactly smooth sailing. The concern in the U.S. exhibition industry is more about anxiety than actual impact. Expectations for (what was to be) a record year have been dialled down, and International participation is evolving. Chinese exhibitors are sending fewer people and relying more on local staff or students, and contractors are working to reduce booth costs. Despite these shifts, Vinnie says organisers are maintaining pre-pandemic contract terms while trying to stay adaptable.
Some flagship shows are powering through. However, second and third-tier events are struggling, especially those reliant on manufacturing or tech exhibitors affected by the tariff anxiety.
He cited a projected $12.5 billion decline in travel spending year-over-year, noting that while tourism is the primary driver, events aren’t immune. But everyone’s watching, waiting, and hedging bets.
“If in Doubt, Do Everything”
Geoff has shared his mantra: “If in doubt, do everything.” Many of us are now in this position: scenario planning, stress-testing assumptions, and identifying which markets to double down on if others falter.
Whether it’s increasing domestic shows in China, building government engagement like Christine’s team, or expanding hosted buyer programs like Tuğçe’s, we’re all trying to find structure in the chaos. And we have to, because waiting for certainty is not a strategy.
Looking Ahead: Freight, GDP, and a Tough Q3 and Q4
One of the core challenges in forecasting within our industry is the lack of reliable leading indicators. Exhibition organisers don’t lead the industries they serve; they follow them to create platforms to meet their changing needs. Furthermore, our sales model, with its strong emphasis on early-stage bookings, may obscure rapidly emerging economic trends.
With the above in mind, I raised the question of whether exhibitions might be sleepwalking into an economic downturn in Q3 or Q4 of 2025. Geoff concurred that a recession is possible, especially if businesses continue to react cautiously to political and economic signals. He explains that fear, even without actual policy changes, can paralyse investment and hiring, leading to contraction.
Garcia noted that while freight volumes are dipping, the logistics industry has learned to adapt since the pandemic and the Suez crisis. With global GDP forecasts down, a slowdown in exhibitions seems likely. However, the situation isn’t unprecedented. Garcia emphasises that the logistics industry is ready to handle it with resilience and responsive strategies.
Vinnie thinks the slowdown is coming. Some shows in the US squeaked through because their logistics hit before tariffs, but Q3 and Q4 will be tougher. Even if a clear tariff policy is announced in July, stability won’t return overnight.
So, What Now?
Keep your eyes peeled for some last-minute brinksmanship and potential trade deals between the US and the rest of the world. You never know; this could all go away the way it started. The US and China seem to have agreed to a truce as of today, which might start the road to normalisation. Even in that scenario, the world outside the US has been warned; Uncle Sam doesn’t want to be your uncle anymore.
This, in turn, could foster stronger ties between Europe and China and new connector economies emerging with a more cautious approach to the US market overall.
I consider all this rebalancing positive news for our industry, as most of it will need to be done face-to-face.
I’d love to hear what you think about all this.
Feel free to reach me here.
Barış
